Define the system and unit of analysis
Specify process, population, product, time window, boundaries and aggregation level. Without a defined unit of analysis, measures and comparisons may represent different phenomena.
TECHNICAL GUIDE · STRUCKEL TOOLS
RSK-02 · Strategy
Disruption Risk Assessment
Compares current performance and future business-model trends on a structured scale to expose vulnerability to disruptive change.
disrupção · modelo de negócio · tendências · riscoFormulários Struckel
01
MANAGEMENT QUESTION
The problem the tool must make decidable.
Before opening a form, define the question that must be answered. A management tool is useful when it reduces ambiguity, exposes assumptions and makes clear which decision will be made from the evidence produced.
RSK-02Which forces could make the current model less competitive, and which leading signals indicate future erosion before it appears in financial results?
Strategy is not an inventory of ambitions. It is a system of choices, hypotheses, indicators and resource allocation. A good strategic tool makes trade-offs visible and creates an explicit link between direction and execution.
Use it for priority setting, business-model review, portfolio management, objective deployment and construction of management routines.
02
METHOD ARCHITECTURE
Technical construction: from operational definition to evidence.
A scorecard summarizes multiple dimensions, but the score is useful only when each scale has an operational definition and associated evidence. The total should never hide the behavior of its components.
Define criteria before evaluation
Translate abstract concepts into operational definitions, scales, classification rules and data sources. Criteria should exist before the result to reduce retrospective interpretation.
Preserve traceability
Link each conclusion to data, observations, assumptions and owners. When a score is used, retain its components; when a hypothesis is used, record how it will be tested.
Analyze total score, distribution, critical items and trend. In risk, a comfortable average may hide an unacceptable dimension; in strategy, a strong metric may mask an objective with no execution.
03
WORKED EXAMPLE
How the method behaves in a real situation.
A company has high margins today, but customers shift to digital subscriptions, switching costs fall and asset-light entrants scale. Current performance may score +2 while trend is -2. The purpose is not precise prediction but earlier strategic experiments.
The example is intentionally specific. Numbers illustrate the reasoning and are not universal benchmarks: limits, scales and targets must be defined for the process being analyzed.04
MEASUREMENT AND INTERPRETATION
What to observe so the document does not become mere form filling.
Measures should serve reasoning. Whenever possible combine outcome, process and contextual evidence. For time series, look for patterns and variation rather than only point-in-time before/after comparisons.
01current performance
02trend
03leading signals
04business-model dependencies
05strategic options
Consistency test
Ask whether another person, using the same definitions and evidence, would reach a similar interpretation. If the answer depends heavily on individual judgment, refine the operational definition, scale or data source.
05
LIMITATIONS AND GOVERNANCE
The tool supports decisions; it does not replace judgment, context and validation.
Support instrument structured by Struckel from recognized principles. Its score/classification should not be presented as psychometric or statistically validated without a specific validation study.
The -3 to +3 score is a Struckel heuristic, not a calibrated forecasting model. Record evidence, horizon and confidence for each rating.
Define an owner, review frequency, official data source and condition for reopening the decision. Link actions to deadlines and indicators, hypotheses to tests, and risks to treatment and follow-up.
DefinitionEvidenceInterpretationDecisionReview
06
METHODOLOGICAL BASIS
References for deeper study of the method.
The references below support the methodological family or principle used. Struckel’s digital implementation operationalizes application, documentation and traceability; it does not change the conceptual limits of the original sources.
CHRISTENSEN
Christensen CM. The Innovator’s Dilemma. Harvard Business School Press; 1997.
TEECE_2010
Open reference Teece DJ. Business Models, Business Strategy and Innovation. Long Range Planning. 2010;43(2–3):172–194.
ISO31000
Open reference ISO 31000:2018. Risk management — Guidelines.
USE IT IN PRACTICE
Turn the method into a document ready for real work.
Struckel Forms offers a free way to structure this methodology with guided fields, contextual help and print/PDF preparation. Use the tool to organize reasoning; use consulting when the challenge requires design, implementation, facilitation or executive follow-up.